Sunday, January 13, 2008

13th Hour Golden Globe Predictions

*Post Globes Editor's Notes*
Whoa. Some major surprises tonight. Atonement over No Country, Sweeney over Juno, Schnabel over the Coens... (I'd like to say, though, that earlier in the day I had suggested that if anyone were to beat the Coens it would be Schnabel...I'm just saying.) Should definitely mix up the Oscar odds until announcements next week. Hobin got 8 correct (counting Ratatouille, which is a category no one else voted for...we all would have got it right...trust me.) Nevertheless, Hansen and Shoaf got 7, and Colvin got 6 by my count. Not all that hot, but some pretty crazy stuff. Get excited now...Hobin will be live blogging the Oscars. Set your calendars now and be here for it!

As much as "serious critics" like to look down on the awards season, we embrace everything here at Out 1 and, frankly, get damn excited about awards and lists. (Top Ten Lists will be unveiled January 21st...) In time for the Globes tonight, truncated press conference or not, these are our predictions for who will win and who should win tonight leading up to Oscar nominations next Tuesday. This also is a time to introduce a new writer, Andy Hobin, to the Out 1 crew. Andy is the awards guru/consultant as he tracks this stuff like crazy. He will be writing other things as well, but we consider him our main awards man. Hope you enjoy the last minute predictions! We'll be tracking them online tonight as we anxiously watch the "news conference." Get excited!

BEST PICTURE - DRAMA

HOBIN WILL WIN - No Country For Old Men. The wind has been at the Coen's backs since prior to wide release. There Will Be Blood has been gaining ground after an uncrowded Christmas(!) debut, but my money's on No Country.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - No Country For Old Men. Michael Clayton a very, very close second.

Colvin Will: No Country For Old Men
Colvin Should: No Country For Old Men

Hansen Will: No Country For Old Men
Hansen Should: There Will Be Blood

Shoaf Will: No Country For Old Men
Shoaf Should: No Country For Old Men

BEST PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

HOBIN WILL WIN - Juno. I didn't buy into the notion that Little Miss Sunshine's success carved a 2008 niche for small, quirky comedies in Best Picture races, but Juno's got the edge over Sweeney. This is what I believe, though I'm probably wrong. It's the fickle, corrupt HFPA. You could get them to nominate Darfur, Now in this category if you sent them a nice enough country breakfast basket.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - Hairspray. As perfect an exercise in the genre since Chicago.

Colvin Will: Juno
Colvin Should: Juno

Hansen Will: Juno
Hansen Should: Sweeney Todd

Shoaf Will: Juno
Shoaf Should: Sweeney Todd

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

HOBIN WILL WIN - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. In a just world, the DGA nom for Schnabel should have this one in the bag.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Colvin Will: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Colvin Should: haven’t seen any...

Hansen Will: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Hansen Should: anything else (hopefully 4 Months 3 Week and 2 Days)

Shoaf Will: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Shoaf Should: Persepolis (based on the preview...I’ve only seen The Kite Runner...)

BEST DIRECTOR

HOBIN WILL WIN - The Coens, No Country For Old Men. Unless the HFPA really, really likes Sweeney Todd, it's the Coens' year.
HOBIN SHOULD NOT WIN - Ridley Scott

Colvin Will: Coen Brothers
Colvin Should: Coen Brothers

Hansen Will: Coen Brothers
Hansen Should: Joe Wright (we need an upset for God’s sake!) And why the f*** is PTA not nominated here? Seriously.

Shoaf Will: Coen Brothers
Shoaf Should: Coen Brothers

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA

HOBIN WILL WIN - Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood. There is Day-Lewis' monolithically evil Daniel Plainvew, and there are bastards in a basket.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - Daniel Day-Lewis.

Colvin Will: Daniel Day-Lewis
Colvin Should: Viggo Mortensen (haven’t seen TWBB)

Hansen Will: Daniel Day-Lewis
Hansen Should: Daniel Day-Lewis

Shoaf Will: Daniel Day-Lewis
Shoaf Should: Daniel Day-Lewis (based solely on the badass preview)

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA

HOBIN WILL WIN - Sharon Sto... er, Julie Christie, Away From Her. (Sorry, but this is the Golden Globes, here.) Her presence in this category makes the rest of the field seem downright uncrowded. Also note, she won the Best Actress Oscar 41 years ago, and let me just say - as her best chance to take the trophy again approaches - she's still smoking hot.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - Julie Christie.

Colvin Will: Julie Christie
Colvin Should: Julie Christie

Hansen Will: Julie Christie
Hansen Should: Julie Christie

Shoaf Will: Julie Christie
Shoaf Should: Keira Knightley (only one I’ve seen)

BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

HOBIN WILL WIN - Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd. Critical reception of Depp's performance has long trumped my perception of the role being little more than Edward Normalhands.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - Not nominated, but it's a throwaway category and I'd take Seth Rogan in Knocked Up over any of the five nominees.

Colvin Will: Johnny Depp
Colvin Should: Johnny Depp

Hansen Will: Johnny Depp
Hansen Should: Johnny Depp

Shoaf Will: Johnny Depp
Shoaf Should: Johnny Depp

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

HOBIN WILL WIN - Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose. Marion Cotillard's performance has the Best Actress pedigree: tragic story, period piece, and - most importantly - quality mimickry of a real life public figure. I don't put a lot of stock into films whose sole nomination is in the leading role category, but, well, you just can't fuck with this.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - Amy Adams, Enchanted. Her unpretentious, unironic, starmaking role is the most overlooked of the year.

Colvin Will: Ellen Page
Colvin Should: Amy Adams

Hansen Will: Marion Cotilllard
Hansen Should: Amy Adams

Shoaf Will: Marion Cotillard
Shoaf Should: Ellen Page

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

HOBIN WILL WIN - Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men. Anton Chigurh is the most iconic screen villain since Hannibal Lector.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. I wrestled with this for a long time, but ultimately decided that Bardem had the supporting role of the year inhabiting a character that really came off as a Coen/Bardem amalgam. (Who, after all, is responsible for that haircut?) Affleck as Robert Ford - whose very skull oozed craven depravity - turned in a haunting, revelatory performance that was all his own. His is the supporting performance of the year.

Colvin Will: Javier Bardem
Colvin Should: Casey Affleck

Hansen Will: Javier Bardem
Hansen Should: Casey Affleck (with Bardem in a virtual tie)

Shoaf Will: Javier Bardem
Shoaf Should: Javier Bardem (with Affleck as a close second)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

HOBIN WILL WIN - Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There. Amy Ryan's reign of terror be damned! The Impression of the Year will not be overlooked!
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone. Because giving an award to a hot chick playing Bob Dylan is just too easy.

Colvin Will: Amy Ryan
Colvin Should: Cate Blanchett

Hansen Will: Amy Ryan
Hansen Should: Cate Blanchett

Shoaf Will: Cate Blanchett
Shoaf Should: Cate Blanchett

BEST SCREENPLAY

HOBIN WILL WIN - Diablo Cody, Juno. It's always kind of cool when the writer becomes the biggest breakthrough story in a film full of breakthrough stories, but...
HOBIN SHOULD NOT WIN - Diablo Cody, Juno. [Channeling Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Punch Drunk Love] SHUT UP! SHUT! UP! SHUT! SHUT! SHUT! SHUT! UP! HONEST TO BLOG, NOBODY FUCKING TALKS LIKE THAT!

Colvin Will: Coen Brothers
Colvin Should: Coen Brothers

Hansen Will: Coen Brothers
Hansen Should: Coen Brothers

Shoaf Will: Coen Brothers
Shoaf Should: Coen Brothers

BEST ANIMATED FILM

HOBIN WILL WIN - Ratatouille. Pixar's best movie to date is worth more consideration than this softball nomination. If Bee Movie wins, I will eat an entire stick of butter.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - Ratatouille.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

I will not comment on this category because Jonny Greenwood's score for There Will Be Blood. This omission is as senseless as Viggo Mortenson, R. Lee Ermey, Danny Trejo, Michael Madson, and Mr. Muggles - the pomeranian from Heroes - rounding out next year's Best Supporting Actress category. (Hedge your bets, folks!)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

HOBIN WILL WIN - Don't know, won't speculate except to say that it won't be that song from Walk Hard.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN - Did anybody else laugh out loud in the theater at the end of the trailer for Love In the Time of Cholera when they flashed the title card, "Featuring new songs by Shakira?" I would love to see this hilarity come full circle. Seriously though, I'd love to see Walt Disney reach out from the grave and make Alan Mencken and Stephen Schwartz players again.

and

CECIL B. DEMILLE AWARD
WILL WIN - Stephen Spielberg, 1941, et al.
SHOULD WIN - Peter O'Toole. 1. Had a great last few years with Venus and Ratatouille. 2. Have you seen this guy lately? Seriously, HFPA, clock's ticking.

3 comments:

jacob shoaf said...

God, I hope Bee Movie wins best animated film.

Brandon Colvin said...

Fuck Bee Movie. If Ratatouille doesn't win then the Golden Globes are dead to me.

Also, they aren't giving out the Cecil B. DeMille Award to Spielberg this year because there isn't going to be a show and all. He's actually going to physically receive it and do his acceptance speech/special effects -laden dance at next year's Globes.

James Hansen said...

Yeah...we heard about the Cecil Award but decided to leave it anyways. Whatevs.