Thursday, February 21, 2008

Out 1 Oscar Predictions


BEST PICTURE

HOBIN WILL WIN: No Country For Old Men. Imagine those Verizon Wireless commercials with that "network" army of people standing behind the smiling dork with the glasses. The guilds - the DGA, WGA, PGA, SAG, etc. - are the network. No Country For Old Men is the smiling dork with the glasses. And he's holding a bolt gun and a sawed off silenced 12 gauge. Call it.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN: No Country, natch. But Michael Clayton would be a delightful spoiler.

HANSEN WILL WIN: No Country For Old Men
HANSEN SHOULD WIN: There Will Be Blood

COLVIN/SHOAF WILL AND SHOULD WIN: No Country For Old Men

BEST DIRECTOR
HOBIN WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Joel and Ethan Coen. Long story short, they're due. Terrific affection for Paul Thomas Anderson is undeniable, but unlike the Coens he's only due a nomination. He'll be back. Same for Tony Gilroy and his stunning debut. Jason Reitman is just along for the ride. Which brings us to...
HOBIN WHO SHOULD NOT WIN: McSweeney's introduced me to a wasp called the tarantula hawk, which "reproduces by paralyzing tarantulas and laying its eggs into their bodies. When the larvae hatch, they devour the still living spider from the inside out." This is what James' inner cynic has apparently done to him, because his betting on Julian Schnabel is otherwise completely indefensible. Regardless of what you think of The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, it wasn't nominated for Best Picture. That doesn't mean that Schnabel doesn't deserve to win, but it certainly means he shouldn't. Dammit, James. In fact, I hate James so much, here's me reprising my Bee Movie Golden Globe challenge to eat an entire stick of butter if Schnabel takes the Oscar. You heard it here first. Suck it and die, James.

HANSEN WILL WIN: Ok...so Andy is supposed to do all the commenting here, but I must retort. Andy... you can take your hipster McSweeney's loving, Juno hating (but secretly loving) ass and go buy a stick of butter. You're gonna be eating it. For a film like Diving Bell, you can't expect a Best Picture nom and it is not an indicator for the support it has, especially from an American director making a "French" film that many critics (for some reason still not within my grasp) have fallen in love with it. And, to steal from Scott Foundas, I think the Academy will give an award for most directing per square inch of film, which makes Diving Bell gold. Call me way out on a limb, but Schnabel will upset the Coens here and be Diving Bell's only win of the night.
HANSEN SHOULD WIN: Anybody else...except for Reitman. Most deserving is PTA.

SHOAF WILL WIN: Coens
SHOAF SHOULD WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson...imagine what he'd do with an Oscar under his belt.


BEST ACTOR
HOBIN WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis. As if his punishingly good performance in There Will Be Blood were not enough, he's made a string of awards season media appearances (his appearance on Oprah and touching SAG Lead Actor acceptance speech) that have only endeared us to see him at the podium again. An upset in this category would be sad and wrong.
HOBIN WILL NOT AND SHOULD NOT WIN: Anybody else. Sorry, Viggo.

EVERYONE ELSE WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day Lewis

BEST ACTRESS
HOBIN WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Julie Christie. I'm just not buying this jargle about an Ellen Page surge. Despite good arguments that can be made for serious box office legs lending itself to awards clout, Page failed to take a major critics or guild award. Marion Cotillard turns in the impression of the year (leading category) but c'mon, who the hell is Edith Piaf and who the hell is Marion Cotillard? Ray Charles this ain't. Strong money's with Christie's pathos-defying performance. And I hope she thanks Alice Munro, on whose short story Away From Her is based, along with Sarah Polley in her acceptance speech.

HANSEN WILL WIN: Ellen Page...wrong again, Andy! And I once called you an expert...
HANSEN SHOULD WIN: Laura Linney...why not?

COLVIN/SHOAF WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Julie Christie


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
HOBIN WILL WIN: Javier Bardem. Nothing beats a supporting performance that carries an entire story, especially if it's a villain.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN: Casey Affleck's titular Robert Ford still haunts. As I've said before, Bardem's was the supporting character of the year, Affleck's was the supporting performance.

COLVIN/HANSEN WILL WIN: Javier Bardem
COLVIN/HANSEN SHOULD WIN: Casey Affleck

SHOAF WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Javier Bardem (although Casey Affleck is deserving too)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
HOBIN WILL WIN
: I'm not tethering myself to this what with Tilda Swinton taking the BAFTA, Ruby Dee taking the SAG, and Amy Ryan cleaning up with the majority of the critics awards, but I'm giving the edge to Academy fav Cate Blanchett. Find me a higher profile impression this year than a chick playing a dude, and that dude is Bob Dylan. The Academy is a recovering alcoholic on the verge of a major relapse, and Blanchett's performance in I'm Not There is the half full bottle of vodka recently discovered in the back of the cabinet. Just try to resist. Okay so maybe I am tethering myself to this pick, but I'm using licorice rope.
HOBIN SHOULD NOT WIN: Saoirse (pronounced SEER-shuh, by the way) Ronan, but wouldn't that be a riot?

EVERYONE ELSE WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett...did you see I'm Not There, Andy?...yeah, that's what we thought!


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
HOBIN WILL WIN: Juno...and I ain't happy about it.
HOBIN SHOULD WIN: Michael Clayton struck a chord as a real writer's type of film. After penning potboilers like The Devil's Advocate, Dolores Claiborne, and the Bourne trilogy, Gilroy's script should be the reason that Michael Clayton doesn't go home empty handed.

HANSEN WILL WIN: Juno
HANSEN SHOULD WIN: The Savages

COLVIN WILL WIN
: Juno
COLVIN SHOULD WIN: Ratatouille

SHOAF WILL WIN: Juno
SHOAF SHOULD WIN: Michael Clayton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
HOBIN WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Cormac McCarthy began No Country For Old Men as a screenplay before turning it into a novel, which while not his best was certainly his most film-friendly. (I have limited hopes next year for John Hilcoat's adaptation of The Road and will withhold judgment of Ridley Scott's Blood Meridian until the first trailer.) His collaboration with the Coens is a textbook case of picking up a decent story and dipping it in gold.

HANSEN WILL WIN: No Country For Old Men
HANSEN SHOULD WIN: There Will Be Blood
...I'll take its creativity in adaptation over the Coens' event by event literal adaptation.

COLVIN WILL WIN: Atonement
COLVIN SHOULD WIN: No Country For Old Men

SHOAF WILL AND SHOULD WIN: No Country For Old Men


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
HOBIN WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Despite the gravitas of Persepolis (Fundamentalist Iran! Adapted from a graphic novel!) Ratatouille is Pixar's finest effort to date.
HOBIN SHOULD NOT WIN: I am tired of cartoon penguins.

EVERYONE ELSE WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Ratatouille

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
HOBIN WILL WIN: No End In Sight.
WHAT'S WRONG WITH MICHAEL MOORE? Bringing Fidel Castro to the Oscars would be a "ratings grabber?"

HANSEN/SHOAF WILL WIN: No End In Sight
HANSE/SHOAF SHOULD WIN: Sicko
... we welcome you, Fidel!

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
UGH. HERE'S ME PULLING A NAME OUT OF A HAT: And it's... Beaufort. All right, Israel!

HANSEN WILL WIN: Beaufort
HANSEN SHOULD WIN: Katyn (
ok...so I haven't seen it, but come on! Wajda!)

SHOAF WILL WIN: The Counterfeiters
SHOAF SHOULD WIN: Katyn


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
HOBIN WILL AND SHOULD WIN: "Falling Slowly," a song that would have been lost amongst small box office but for the glory of YouTube.

HANSEN WILL AND SHOULD WIN: "Falling Slowly"...sorry, Enchanted. I love you, but really...

SHOAF WILL WIN: Something from Enchanted..."That's How You Know" perhaps.
SHOAF SHOULD WIN: "Falling Slowly"

My day job precludes me from speculating at length on the rest of the categories. Don't forget to swing by during the telecast for liveblogging!- Andy

James here...some of us had some other categories we want to predict and since we have time (day job? please!) here they are...

BEST EDITING
HANSEN WILL WIN: The Bourne Ultimatum
HANSEN SHOULD WIN: There Will Be Blood

COLVIN WILL WIN: The Bourne Ultimatum
COLVIN SHOULD WIN: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

SHOAF WILL WIN: The Bourne Ultimatum
SHOAF SHOULD WIN: Bourne or No Country


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
HANSEN WILL AND SHOULD WIN: There Will Be Blood

COLVIN WILL AND SHOULD WIN: No Country For Old Men

SHOAF WILL WIN:
Roger Deakins, No Country For Old Men
SHOAF SHOULD WIN:
Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford

And just because we actually went to see these...

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
HANSEN WILL WIN: The Tonto Woman or At Night
HANSEN SHOULD WIN
: None of them. I'm not trying to be a short film skeptic and there have been lots of good ones over the years in this category, but this year's batch is way weak. At Night is trite and overwrought. Tonto Woman is pretentious, poorly acted, and confused about what it wants to do. The other three are silly, cutesy, and that's about it. I'd take At Night because I like Denmark.

SHOAF WILL AND SHOULD WIN: The Tonto Woman

Happy Oscars everyone! We'll see you for Live Blogging starting at 8 on Sunday!

5 comments:

jacob shoaf said...

I think you switched my Original Song choices. I'm rooting my junk off for "Falling Slowly", but I think something from Enchanted will win (if you'll recall Beauty and the Beast and Lion King being other Disney films with three song nominations where one of them won).

James Hansen said...

Done and done. As in corrected and corrected. You're wrong though...anything with more than one nomination in the same category is toast. Plus, the Academy will want to recognize "Once" for all the acclaim/money it earned. It is the true little film that could. "Juno" is not as little as people say, I don't think.

jacob shoaf said...

You may be right in that Once might win, and I hope it does as that song is amazing even outside of the context of the film. However, movies with more than one nomination in the song category cannot be ruled out just because of that fact.

Winners of the Best Song category with multiple nominations:
Fame (1980)
Flashdance (1983)
White Nights (1985)
The Little Mermaid (1989)
Beauty and the Beast (1991)-triple nominee
Aladdin (1992)
Philadelphia (1993)
The Lion King (1994)-triple nominee

And in interest of full disclosure...
Multiple best song nominations that lost:
Yentl (1983)-lost to another double nominee
Footloose (1984)
The Bodyguard (1992)-lost to another double nominee
Dreamgirls (2006)-triple nominee

jacob shoaf said...

PS-I overlooked Cold Mountain which was a double nominee in 2003 and also lost. But my point still stands.

patrick said...

just saw no country for old men; it's unassumingly unconventional and yet (thankfully) never over the top.... all in all the Coen brothers deserve their Oscars, well done indeed.